Phönix Lübeck vs VfB Oldenburg Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Phönix Lübeck a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against only 10% for VfB Oldenburg, so the double-chance advice on Phönix Lübeck or draw rests on a combined 90% and is reinforced by a comparison profile that is strong but not one-sided. Phönix Lübeck lead the form comparison 63 to 38 and the defensive comparison 83 to 17, and their perfect Poisson score of 100 against Oldenburg's 0 suggests the model sees the home side as far more likely to control the match. That control is visible in the goals analysis, where Phönix Lübeck have conceded just six goals all season at 0.60 per game and kept six clean sheets, including three at home without conceding, while Oldenburg have shipped 14 at 1.40 per game and kept only two clean sheets. The attacking numbers are less lopsided, with Oldenburg actually scoring more in total (31 to 28) and averaging 3.10 goals per game against Phönix Lübeck's 2.80, which qualifies any assumption that the home side will simply dominate the scoreline. Phönix Lübeck's last five are all wins, including a 9-0 home rout of Todesfelde and three away victories without conceding, whereas Oldenburg's last five read W-W-L-W-L and include a 1-3 home defeat to SSV Jeddeloh and a 0-1 loss at Schöningen. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight, since Oldenburg lead that comparison 62 to 38 and have won three of the six meetings, including a 3-1 home win in March 2026 and a 5-1 win at Phönix Lübeck in 2023, with two draws and only one Phönix Lübeck victory. Those historical results suggest Oldenburg are not merely a weak away side, even though their current away form is mixed, with a 4-0 win at Bremer SV and a 0-1 defeat at Schöningen among their recent road matches. The fixture is listed as postponed, so the probabilities and comparisons describe the pre-match model rather than a result, and the 45% draw share indicates the model itself treats a stalemate as nearly as likely as a home win. Overall, the defensive and form evidence supports the double-chance advice, but the head-to-head record and Oldenburg's superior total goals output mean the 10% away probability may understate the visitors' capacity to disrupt that outcome.

Predicted winner

Phönix Lübeck

Betting advice

Double chance : Phönix Lübeck or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. VfB Oldenburg 3–1 Phönix Lübeck (27 Mar 2026)
2. Phönix Lübeck 1–2 VfB Oldenburg (27 Sep 2025)
3. VfB Oldenburg 2–2 Phönix Lübeck (23 Nov 2024)
4. Phönix Lübeck 3–1 VfB Oldenburg (10 Aug 2024)
5. VfB Oldenburg 1–1 Phönix Lübeck (26 Nov 2023)