Pescara vs Spezia Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Spezia a double-chance edge of draw or win, with home, draw, and away probabilities of 10%, 45%, and 45%, so the advice rests on Pescara being unlikely to take all three points rather than on a clear Spezia superiority. That reading is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Spezia leads form 75 to 25, attack 65 to 35, defence 82 to 18, Poisson 57 to 43, head-to-head 71 to 29, goals 58 to 42, and total 68 to 32, a broadly one-sided profile. Spezia's team analysis supports that strength, showing a DWWWWW sequence with five wins and one draw from six, no defeats, and no match in which they failed to score. Pescara's WLDLDW record is far more mixed, with two wins, two draws, and two losses, and although they have kept three clean sheets, their away defending collapsed in a 6-3 loss at Forli. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast: Spezia average 2.00 goals for and only 0.50 against, while Pescara average 1.30 for and 1.50 against, with Pescara's away goals-against average of 2.70 standing out as a vulnerability. Spezia's last five are all wins, including 3-1 over Vis Pesaro, 3-0 at Perugia, 2-0 over Livorno, 2-1 at Sambenedettese, and 3-0 over Vado, whereas Pescara's last five produced one win, two draws, and two losses, so the recent samples point in the same direction as the season aggregates. The head-to-head record is less one-sided than the 71-to-29 comparison suggests, since the most recent meeting in May 2026 finished 1-1 at Pescara and Spezia's 2-1 home win in December 2025 was narrow, while older fixtures include both Pescara home wins and heavy Spezia victories. The draw probability of 45% is therefore a meaningful qualifier rather than a contradiction, because Pescara have drawn twice at home and kept clean sheets in three of six matches, which could keep this tight even if Spezia's form and defensive numbers make them the more likely side to avoid defeat. Overall, the evidence consistently leans toward Spezia not losing, but the small six-match samples and the recent 1-1 head-to-head result mean the double chance is a cautious reading of a fixture that could still finish level.

Predicted winner

Spezia

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Spezia

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Pescara 1–1 Spezia (08 May 2026)
2. Spezia 2–1 Pescara (27 Dec 2025)
3. Spezia 2–0 Pescara (04 Mar 2020)
4. Pescara 1–2 Spezia (19 Oct 2019)
5. Pescara 2–0 Spezia (03 Mar 2019)