Peralada vs Atlètic Lleida Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Atlètic Lleida via a draw-or-away double chance combined with under 3.5 goals, assigning 45% to both the draw and an away win while Peralada carries only 10%. That split is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Atlètic Lleida leads on form (67 vs 33), attack (60 vs 40), head-to-head (80 vs 20), goals (75 vs 25) and overall total (65 vs 35), though Peralada's superior defence score (57 vs 43) is the one clear counterweight. The Poisson values are both listed at 0.00, so that particular metric offers no separating signal and should not be over-read. Peralada's three league games produced a DLD sequence with two draws and one defeat, no clean sheets, and a failure to score at home, while their goals analysis shows just two goals scored at 0.70 per game and three conceded at 1.00 per game, with all three matches staying under 1.5 goals. Atlètic Lleida's DLW record is marginally better, featuring one home win and one clean sheet, but their away numbers are weak: zero goals scored on the road, a 2-0 loss at L'Hospitalet, and 2.00 goals conceded per away game. Their goal timing is notably front-loaded, with two of three goals arriving in the opening 15 minutes, whereas Peralada's concessions cluster after the break, which could shape how the match unfolds. The last-five records add a cautionary note, since Peralada's older results include a 5-0 win and a 2-2 draw alongside recent low-scoring stalemates, and Atlètic Lleida's sequence mixes a 1-0 win with two defeats, so neither sample is large enough to be decisive. The head-to-head record is the strongest historical support for the advice, with Atlètic Lleida winning 3-1 away at Peralada and drawing 0-0 at home, giving them an 80-20 edge and no defeat in the two meetings. Overall, the evidence points toward a low-scoring, tight contest in which the draw-or-away double chance and the under 3.5 goals component are mutually consistent, but Peralada's better defensive rating and Atlètic Lleida's scoreless away form mean the prediction should be treated as plausible rather than assured.

Predicted winner

Atlètic Lleida

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Atlètic Lleida and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Atlètic Lleida 0–0 Peralada (06 Apr 2025)
2. Peralada 1–3 Atlètic Lleida (24 Nov 2024)