Pazarspor vs Karabük İdman Yurdu Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model output points to a Pazarspor win or draw, with the probabilities split evenly at 50% home and 50% draw and no chance assigned to a Karabük İdman Yurdu victory. That advice is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Pazarspor leads on form (64 versus 36), attack (67 versus 33), defence (86 versus 14), Poisson (70 versus 30), head-to-head (80 versus 20), goals (67 versus 33) and total (72.30 versus 27.70), suggesting the edge is systematic rather than driven by a single dimension. The team analysis reinforces this, as Pazarspor are unbeaten across three matches (DWW) with two wins and a draw, while Karabük İdman Yurdu have one win, one draw and one loss (LWD), including a heavy 1-5 home defeat. Pazarspor's goals profile is also more balanced, averaging 2.00 scored and only 0.30 conceded per match, whereas Karabük average 1.00 scored but 2.00 conceded, a gap that helps explain the lopsided defensive comparison. The last-five records qualify the picture slightly: Pazarspor have won four of five, including a 4-1 home win and a 1-0 away win at Karabük, while Karabük's sequence includes a 0-0 home draw, a 2-1 away win, the 1-5 loss, and a 0-1 home defeat to Pazarspor. The head-to-head record is the most direct support for the double chance, since Pazarspor won the most recent meeting 1-0 away, won 1-0 at home in December 2025, and drew the two earlier encounters 0-0 and 2-2, leaving Karabük without a win in the four recorded meetings. However, the small sample sizes matter: three league matches this season and only four head-to-head fixtures mean the 50% draw probability and the 0% away probability should be treated as model estimates rather than certainties. The goals analysis adds nuance, with Pazarspor scoring twice in the 46-60 and 76-90 windows and conceding only once all season, while Karabük have conceded in five different periods, including two goals in the 0-15 and 61-75 ranges. Overall, the evidence aligns behind the existing Pazarspor-or-draw advice, but the even home-draw split and Karabük's away win at Zonguldak suggest the draw component is a meaningful part of that recommendation rather than a formality.

Predicted winner

Pazarspor

Betting advice

Double chance : Pazarspor or draw

Home win probability

50%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

0%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Karabük İdman Yurdu 0–1 Pazarspor (12 Apr 2026)
2. Pazarspor 1–0 Karabük İdman Yurdu (17 Dec 2025)
3. Karabük İdman Yurdu 0–0 Pazarspor (16 Feb 2025)
4. Pazarspor 2–2 Karabük İdman Yurdu (05 Oct 2024)