Pasaia KE vs Santurtzi Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% home and 45% draw probabilities justify the double-chance advice, since Santurtzi's 10% win probability is the clear outlier.
• Pasaia's superior form, attack, and head-to-head scores align with the home side being favored, though the equal 50% defence ratings temper outright dominance.
• Santurtzi's attack has produced just two goals in four games, all at home, supporting the low away win probability.
• Pasaia's perfect Poisson score contrasts with their actual defensive record of four goals conceded, suggesting the model may overstate home control.
• Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet, so the draw component of the double chance remains a meaningful hedge.
• Recent head-to-head results are mixed, with two draws and away wins, which supports covering the draw rather than backing a home win alone.

Predicted winner

Pasaia KE

Betting advice

Double chance : Pasaia KE or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Pasaia KE 0–0 Santurtzi (02 Apr 2026)
2. Santurtzi 1–3 Pasaia KE (22 Nov 2025)
3. Pasaia KE 2–3 Santurtzi (05 Apr 2025)
4. Santurtzi 2–2 Pasaia KE (24 Nov 2024)
5. Pasaia KE 3–1 Santurtzi (13 Feb 2021)