Paraty vs Rio de Janeiro Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% draw and 45% away probabilities make the double-chance advice the coherent read of a near-even split.
• Paraty's six defeats from six, with no clean sheets, anchor the low 10% home probability despite their head-to-head win.
• Rio de Janeiro's mixed WDLLLW form and scoreless away record temper the away win, justifying the draw cover rather than a straight pick.
• Paraty concede 2.8 goals per game on average, so Rio's modest 1.2 scoring rate still finds a vulnerable opponent.
• Rio's away attack has produced just one goal in three road matches, which is why the model splits probability almost evenly.
• The single prior meeting favored Paraty, a small-sample counterweight the model absorbs without overturning its current-form lean.

Predicted winner

Rio de Janeiro

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Rio de Janeiro

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Paraty 2–0 Rio de Janeiro (22 Sep 2025)