Palencia CF vs UD Santa Marta Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives UD Santa Marta a double-chance edge of draw or away at 45% each, leaving Palencia CF a modest 10% home win probability, which frames the analysis around avoiding a home victory rather than expecting an away rout. That framing is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Santa Marta leads form 75 to 25, attack 75 to 25, defence 80 to 20, Poisson 100 to 0, goals 58 to 42 and total 70 to 30, while only head-to-head is closer at 62 to 38 in Santa Marta's favour. The team analysis explains much of that gap: Santa Marta arrive with a WWW record across three matches, two home clean sheets and no failure to score, whereas Palencia's WLL start includes two scoreless defeats and only one clean sheet, which came away. Palencia's goals profile is thin at 0.70 scored per game against 1.30 conceded, with both goals coming away from home and none at home, and their defensive concessions are spread evenly across four different 15-minute windows. Santa Marta's goals analysis is stronger at 2.00 scored and 0.30 conceded per game, with six goals split between home and away and a notable late threat of three goals in the 76-90 window, though their single concession came in the 31-45 period. The last-five records add nuance rather than pure confirmation: Santa Marta have won all five listed matches, including a 3-0 home win over Colegios Diocesanos and a 2-1 away win at Villaralbo, while Palencia's five include two wins, a draw and two losses, so their recent form is not uniformly poor even if the model's three-match sample is. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, showing Palencia winning four of the last ten meetings and Santa Marta four, with two draws, and the most recent fixture in May 2026 ended 2-1 to Santa Marta at home, which supports the away-leaning advice but also shows Palencia can score in this matchup. Because the samples are only three league matches for form and goals and the probabilities are nearly split between draw and away, the evidence supports the double chance as a cautious read rather than a strong away win, and the absence of an under-over prediction means no goals-market conclusion should be drawn from the total metrics.

Predicted winner

UD Santa Marta

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or UD Santa Marta

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. UD Santa Marta 2–1 Palencia CF (02 May 2026)
2. Palencia CF 2–1 UD Santa Marta (04 Jan 2026)
3. UD Santa Marta 2–0 Palencia CF (20 Apr 2025)
4. Palencia CF 1–1 UD Santa Marta (06 Dec 2024)
5. UD Santa Marta 1–1 Palencia CF (18 Feb 2024)