Paganese vs Gelbison Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a Paganese win, but its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability and only 10% for Gelbison, so the advice of “Winner: Paganese” is far from a clear-cut call. The comparison metrics reinforce that tension: Paganese dominate form (71 vs 29), attack (73 vs 27) and Poisson (81 vs 19), yet the head-to-head (33 vs 67) and goals (33 vs 67) splits favour Gelbison, which is a notable conflict given the overall 58.5 to 41.5 total edge for the hosts. Paganese’s team analysis shows a four-match unbeaten run of WWDW with three wins and one draw, including a 6-1 away win at Trastevere and a 2-1 home win over Unipomezia, while their only clean sheet came at home and they failed to score once. Gelbison’s DLWL record is much shakier, with two away defeats (1-3 at Sarnese and 1-2 at Trastevere) and a 0-0 home draw against Afragolese, so their single home win over Budoni is the only bright spot in a four-match sample. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast: Paganese average 2.80 goals per game overall, boosted by 4.50 away, against just 1.00 conceded, whereas Gelbison average 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded, with their away defence leaking 2.50 per game. Paganese’s scoring is spread across the match, with 36.36% of goals in the 31-45 window and 27.27% in the opening 15 minutes, while Gelbison’s four goals are evenly distributed and their six conceded are concentrated before the 60th minute. The last-five records echo this: Paganese have four wins and a draw with 12 goals scored and four conceded, compared with Gelbison’s one win, one draw and three defeats with four scored and nine conceded. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, as all four meetings since 2023 produced either draws (1-1 three times) or a 3-0 Gelbison home win, meaning Paganese have never beaten Gelbison in this sample. Because the h2h and goals splits favour Gelbison while form, attack, defence and Poisson favour Paganese, the model’s 45% draw probability looks like a reasonable hedge against the head-to-head pattern, and the small four-match samples mean the home-win advice should be treated as a lean rather than a confident conclusion.

Predicted winner

Paganese

Betting advice

Winner : Paganese

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Paganese 1–1 Gelbison (06 Apr 2025)
2. Gelbison 1–1 Paganese (24 Nov 2024)
3. Paganese 1–1 Gelbison (03 Mar 2024)
4. Gelbison 3–0 Paganese (28 Oct 2023)