Pachuca W vs Toluca W Prediction
· Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
OUR RECOMMENDATIONCombo Double chance : draw or Toluca W and +1.5 goals
Match prediction
- Toluca's stronger recent form and attack ratings support the away-favoured double chance, though the model's equal 45% draw and away probabilities show the outcome remains genuinely uncertain.
- Pachuca's poor away record contrasts with a solid home record, explaining why the model still assigns only a modest 10% home win probability.
- Both teams concede regularly and Toluca's matches frequently exceed 1.5 goals, giving the +1.5 goals component of the advice reasonable support.
- Head-to-head results are evenly split and include recent draws, which tempers confidence in an outright Toluca win and justifies covering the draw.
- Toluca's heavy defeats to stronger sides show vulnerability, so the double chance rather than a straight win is the more defensible position.
- Pachuca's low scoring average and frequent failures to score suggest goals may come mainly from Toluca, keeping the total moderate rather than high.
- Predicted winner
- Toluca W
- Betting advice
- Combo Double chance : draw or Toluca W and +1.5 goals
- Home win probability
- 10%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 45%
- Goals market
- +1.5
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Pachuca W | Toluca W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Attack | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Defence | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Poisson | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| Total | 46.5% | 53.5% |
Team form and goal analysis
Pachuca W
Recent form: LDWWLLLLW.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Toluca W
Recent form: WWDWWLWLW.
Average goals scored: 2.60 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Toluca W 1–1 Pachuca W (17 Feb 2026)
- Pachuca W 1–2 Toluca W (05 Aug 2025)
- Pachuca W 2–3 Toluca W (21 Mar 2025)
- Toluca W 1–3 Pachuca W (01 Oct 2024)
- Pachuca W 4–0 Toluca W (19 Mar 2024)