Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 16

Oyonesa vs Varea Prediction

Oyonesa badgeOyonesa vs Varea badgeVarea

Match prediction

  • Varea's unbeaten start and superior defensive record justify the draw-or-away double chance, though the model's equal 45% draw and away probabilities show the outright winner is far from settled.
  • Oyonesa's attack rating exceeds Varea's, but their leaky defence and two losses in four suggest that edge may not translate into a home win.
  • The head-to-head is split evenly with several low-scoring draws, reinforcing the draw component of the double chance rather than a decisive away victory.
  • Both teams' goal data show almost every match staying under 2.5 goals, which supports the -3.5 goals component of the advice.
  • Varea's three draws in four matches and Oyonesa's alternating results point to a tight, low-scoring contest consistent with the cautious combined prediction.
  • The modest 10% home win probability reflects Oyonesa's poor form and defensive vulnerability, making the draw-or-Varea combination the more defensible side of the advice.
Predicted winner
Varea
Betting advice
Combo Double chance : draw or Varea and -3.5 goals
Home win probability
10%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
45%
Goals market
-3.5

Prediction comparison

FactorOyonesaVarea
Form40.0%60.0%
Attack57.0%43.0%
Defence25.0%75.0%
Poisson45.0%55.0%
H2h50.0%50.0%
Goals60.0%40.0%
Total46.2%53.8%

Team form and goal analysis

Oyonesa

Recent form: LLWD.

Average goals scored: 1.00 per match.

Varea

Recent form: DDDW.

Average goals scored: 0.80 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Varea 0–2 Oyonesa (24 May 2026)
  2. Oyonesa 0–0 Varea (17 May 2026)
  3. Varea 0–1 Oyonesa (10 May 2026)
  4. Oyonesa 0–1 Varea (10 Jan 2026)
  5. Varea 1–0 Oyonesa (08 Jun 2025)
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