Ourense CF vs Arosa Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% draw and 45% Arosa split makes double chance the logical expression of its near-even two-way lean.
• Ourense's superior form and defensive metrics conflict with the model's low 10% home win probability, suggesting the market weighs factors beyond recent results.
• Arosa's attack and Poisson edges, plus stronger head-to-head record, support their inclusion in the double chance despite a winless league run.
• Ourense's away clean sheets and Arosa's leaky home defence hint the hosts can score, yet the model still caps their win chance at 10%.
• Arosa's late-goal tendency and Ourense's early concessions suggest goals are plausible, though the advice focuses on result rather than totals.
• Small samples of four league games and dated head-to-head meetings mean the form and historical edges should be treated cautiously.

Predicted winner

Arosa

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Arosa

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ourense CF 1–1 Arosa (24 Jan 2021)
2. Arosa 2–1 Ourense CF (01 Nov 2020)
3. Ourense CF —–— Arosa (29 Mar 2020)
4. Arosa 0–0 Ourense CF (09 Nov 2019)