Österlen vs Lilla Torg Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Lilla Torg a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for an Österlen victory. That caution toward the home side is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Lilla Torg's form score of 62.00 and defensive score of 59.00 outrank Österlen's 38.00 and 41.00, even though Österlen lead on attack (53.00 vs 47.00) and Poisson (54.00 vs 46.00). The head-to-head and goals comparison columns are effectively neutral at 50.00 each and 0.00 each, while the aggregate totals tilt slightly to Lilla Torg at 52.80 versus 47.20, so the model's lean rests mainly on form and defence rather than on any scoring or historical dominance. Österlen's 22-match record of eight wins, five draws and nine losses, including a 6-0 home win over Karlshamn but also a 1-4 home defeat to IFK Trelleborg, shows a volatile side whose home form is unusually draw-free with five wins and six losses. Lilla Torg's 22-match record of six wins, nine draws and seven losses, with four home draws and five away draws, marks them as a markedly more drawing-prone team, which aligns with the elevated 45% draw probability. Their respective last-five sequences support that contrast: Österlen have two draws, two losses and one win, conceding three at Växjö Norra and four at home to IFK Trelleborg, while Lilla Torg are unbeaten in four with two wins and two draws, including 3-1 wins over Berga and Räppe. The goals analysis adds nuance, as Österlen average 1.50 scored and 1.60 conceded while Lilla Torg average 1.30 scored and 1.60 conceded, so Lilla Torg's edge is not built on superior scoring output. Both defences leak late, with Österlen conceding 32.35% of goals in the 76-90 window and Lilla Torg 20.00% there, while Lilla Torg score 42.86% of their goals in that same late period, hinting at a possible late-game dynamic. The only head-to-head meeting, a 0-0 draw between these teams in April 2026, is too small a sample to carry much weight but is consistent with the draw-heavy profile the model favours. Overall, the form, defensive and draw-frequency evidence jointly support the draw-or-Lilla Torg advice, while Österlen's stronger attack and Poisson ratings and the neutral head-to-head and goals columns qualify it rather than overturn it.

Predicted winner

Lilla Torg

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Lilla Torg

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Lilla Torg 0–0 Österlen (30 Apr 2026)