Ontinyent 1931 vs Buñol Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Buñol with a "win or draw" call and a combo of draw-or-Buñol plus under 3.5 goals, reflecting probabilities of 45% draw, 45% away and only 10% home, so the advice is essentially a protection against an Ontinyent win rather than a strong away-victory signal. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Buñol lead on form (63 vs 38), attack (60 vs 40) and defence (67 vs 33), yet the Poisson values are both 0.00 and therefore offer no independent separation between the sides. The head-to-head metric is the clearest counterweight, showing 100% in Ontinyent's favour, and the two recorded meetings split accordingly: Ontinyent won 1-0 at home in March 2026, while Buñol won 1-3 at home in October 2025, so the recent series is mixed rather than one-sided. Ontinyent's own profile is volatile, with a W-L-L sequence across three league games, one home win and two away defeats, and their goals analysis shows just two goals scored (0.70 per game) against four conceded (1.30), including a 2-0 loss at Levante II and a 1-2 defeat at Roda. Buñol's form of W-D-D is steadier, with one win and two draws, no defeats, and a defensive record of only two goals conceded (0.70 per game) compared with three scored (1.00), though both of their goals against came at home and their away clean sheet at Levante II shows they can travel without conceding. The last-five records reinforce that contrast: Ontinyent have lost four of five, including three straight defeats, while Buñol have two wins, two draws and one loss, with the only defeat a 0-3 away result at Jove Español. The goals analysis also supports the under 3.5 element, since neither side has exceeded 2.5 goals in any of their three league matches, and Buñol's scoring is concentrated late (two of three goals in the 76-90 window) while Ontinyent's goals are split between the 61-75 and 91-105 periods. Overall, the evidence points to a low-scoring, closely contested match in which Buñol's better form and defence justify the draw-or-away protection, but Ontinyent's perfect head-to-head record and home advantage in the most recent meeting are real qualifications that keep the prediction from being a confident away win.

Predicted winner

Buñol

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Buñol and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Ontinyent 1931 1–0 Buñol (08 Mar 2026)
2. Buñol 1–3 Ontinyent 1931 (25 Oct 2025)