Olimpia Zambrów vs Pelikan Łowicz Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Olimpia Zambrów or draw, but its own probabilities are nearly flat at 35% home, 35% draw and 30% away, so the advice reflects a marginal edge rather than a clear favourite. The comparison metrics pull in opposite directions: Pelikan Łowicz holds the better form score (58 versus 42) and a strong head-to-head score (62 versus 38), while Olimpia dominates the Poisson measure (77 versus 23) and the defensive comparison (75 versus 25), which is the main statistical basis for the home-side lean. Olimpia's attacking comparison edge (59 versus 41) is consistent with its scoring output of 19 goals in nine games at 2.10 per match, yet its defensive record of 23 conceded at 2.60 per match sits awkwardly against that favourable defensive score. Pelikan's profile is the mirror image, with only 13 goals scored at 1.40 per match but just 11 conceded at 1.20, and its away scoring average of 0.50 per game is a serious qualification on any away value. The last-five records sharpen this tension: Olimpia has two draws, two losses and one win with a 0-5 defeat at Mazovia, while Pelikan has three wins, one draw and one loss, though both away defeats in that run came by a single goal. Pelikan's form string of WWWLDLWLW and Olimpia's WLLWWLLDD show Pelikan carrying the better recent results, but Pelikan's wins are heavily home-weighted, with four of five victories at home and only one away. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the model's lean, since Pelikan won three of the six meetings, Olimpia won one and two were drawn, and the most recent encounter in March 2024 finished 1-1. The goals analysis adds nuance rather than resolution, as Olimpia scores most in the 46-60 and 76-90 windows but concedes heavily before half-time, while Pelikan's goals are concentrated late and its defensive record is tighter overall. With the total comparison nearly level at 48 versus 52 and no under-over selection provided, the evidence supports a cautious, low-conviction reading in which the double chance is defensible but the flat probabilities and Pelikan's head-to-head and form advantages keep the outcome genuinely uncertain.

Predicted winner

Olimpia Zambrów

Betting advice

Double chance : Olimpia Zambrów or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Olimpia Zambrów 1–1 Pelikan Łowicz (02 Mar 2024)
2. Pelikan Łowicz 3–1 Olimpia Zambrów (13 Aug 2023)
3. Pelikan Łowicz 2–1 Olimpia Zambrów (02 Apr 2023)
4. Olimpia Zambrów 1–1 Pelikan Łowicz (27 Aug 2022)
5. Olimpia Zambrów 3–1 Pelikan Łowicz (05 Jun 2021)