Olimpia Elbląg vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw-or-Lechia T. Mazowiecki double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for an Olimpia Elbląg win, so the advice reflects a clear but not overwhelming preference. That tilt is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Lechia leads on attack (57 vs 43), Poisson (54 vs 46), goals (71 vs 29) and total (60 vs 40), while form is level at 50 apiece and only defence favours Olimpia at 52 against 48. The head-to-head record is the sharpest single signal, with Lechia holding an 80 to 20 edge, though it rests on just two meetings, including a 5-2 away win at this same Stadion Miejski and a 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture. Both teams show identical league profiles of three wins, one draw and five losses from nine games, which tempers any reading of Lechia as clearly superior and helps explain why the draw carries as much weight as the away win. Their recent form is similarly mixed, with Olimpia's LWWLDLLWL and Lechia's LLWWWDLLL both ending in three defeats, and the last-five records confirm that slump: Olimpia have one win, one draw and three losses, while Lechia have one win, one draw and three losses of their own. Lechia's goal analysis offers the main counterweight to that poor run, as they average 2.00 goals per game overall and 2.50 at home, whereas Olimpia average 1.40 and concede 2.00 per game, leaving both defences vulnerable. Olimpia's scoring is also heavily concentrated before half-time, with 38.46% of their goals in the 31-45 window, while they concede 61.11% of their goals after the 61st minute, a late-game fragility that could matter in a tight contest. Lechia's defensive record is the weakest area, since they have no clean sheets in nine matches and concede 2.20 per game, which is why the model stops short of backing them to win outright and instead pairs them with the draw. Overall, the evidence points to a low-confidence edge for the double chance rather than a decisive away victory, since Lechia's superior attacking and historical numbers are offset by their identical league record, matching recent form and porous defence.

Predicted winner

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

—

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0–0 Olimpia Elbląg (30 May 2026)
2. Olimpia Elbląg 2–5 Lechia T. Mazowiecki (15 Nov 2025)