Oleksandria vs Yarud Mariupol' Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Oleksandria a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against Yarud Mariupol', leaving only 10% for an away win, which frames the advice of a double chance on Oleksandria or draw combined with under 3.5 goals. That advice is broadly consistent with the goals evidence, since Oleksandria have stayed under 3.5 in seven of eight matches and Mariupol' in all eight, while the head-to-head record shows a single 1-0 Oleksandria friendly win from 2023 that supports a low-scoring, home-leaning outcome but is too small a sample to carry much weight. The comparison metrics, however, are not uniformly pro-home: Mariupol' lead on form (57 versus 43) and attack (73 versus 27), whereas Oleksandria dominate defence (80 versus 20), Poisson (72 versus 28), goals (100 versus 0) and total (55.5 versus 44.5), so the model's home lean rests more on defensive and goal-based measures than on current form or attacking output. Oleksandria's eight-match record of four wins, three draws and one loss, with five clean sheets and only six goals conceded at 0.80 per game, explains why their defensive and Poisson scores are so high, and their home splits are especially strong with three wins, one draw and no defeats. Mariupol' also have four wins from eight but with three losses and just one clean sheet, and their 1.30 goals-against average reflects a defence that has conceded in seven of eight matches, which is the main tension with their superior form and attack ratings. The last-five records add nuance: Oleksandria have two wins, two draws and one loss with only three goals scored and one conceded, while Mariupol' have three wins, one draw and one loss with eight goals scored and five conceded, suggesting Mariupol' carry more attacking momentum but also more defensive exposure. Oleksandria's goals analysis shows a 1.50 scoring average split evenly home and away, with 40% of their goals arriving in the 46-60 minute window and 37.5% of goals conceded in the 76-90 window, hinting at both a post-half-time scoring habit and a late-game vulnerability. Mariupol' average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded, with their goals for and against both concentrated late (27.27% and 30% respectively in the 76-90 window), so the closing stages could be where the match is decided. Overall, the defensive solidity, Poisson and goals metrics plus the under-3.5 pattern support the existing double-chance and low-goals advice, but Mariupol's better form and attack ratings mean the 10% away probability looks like the most fragile part of the model's output rather than a settled conclusion.

Predicted winner

Oleksandria

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Oleksandria or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Oleksandria 1–0 Yarud Mariupol' (03 Jul 2023)