Oldham vs Salford City Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw-or-Salford double chance, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% for both the draw and an away win against only 10% for an Oldham victory. That stance is broadly reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Salford lead on form (71 versus 29), attack and defence (both 58 versus 42), goals (70 versus 30) and head-to-head (80 versus 20), though the Poisson projection is a notable exception that favours Oldham at 76 versus 24. The team analysis helps explain that conflict, since Oldham have been far stronger at home, taking two wins and two clean sheets from three home fixtures, while Salford have won none of their three away games and conceded seven goals on the road. Recent form is similarly mixed: Oldham's last five read W-L-L-L-D with just two goals scored, whereas Salford's W-W-D-W-L sequence includes three home wins but also a 1-2 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday. The goals data show both sides averaging 1.10 scored per game, but Salford's away defensive record of 2.30 conceded per away match is the weakest figure in the sample and sits awkwardly beside their strong overall comparison scores. Salford's attacking threat is concentrated late, with 50% of their goals coming in the 76-90 minute window, while Oldham concede 25% of their goals in that same period, suggesting the closing stages could matter. The head-to-head record tilts clearly to Salford with six wins from nine meetings, including a 2-1 victory at Boundary Park in April 2026, although Oldham have won three of the fixtures and two of those came at home. Overall, the double-chance advice looks reasonably supported by form, goals and head-to-head evidence, but the Poisson disagreement, Oldham's home resilience and Salford's poor away record mean the draw component carries much of the justification rather than a confident away win.

Predicted winner

Salford City

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Salford City

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Oldham 1–2 Salford City (18 Apr 2026)
2. Salford City 1–0 Oldham (18 Oct 2025)
3. Oldham 1–2 Salford City (23 Apr 2022)
4. Salford City 2–0 Oldham (27 Nov 2021)
5. Oldham 1–0 Salford City (31 Aug 2021)