Nyköping vs Syrianska FC Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Nyköping a 35% home win and 35% draw against Syrianska FC's 30%, so the double-chance advice of "Nyköping or draw" reflects a narrow edge rather than a clear favourite. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Syrianska hold a slight form advantage (53 vs 47) and a clear head-to-head advantage (62 vs 38), while Nyköping lead on attack (53 vs 47) and total (53 vs 47) and the defence scores are level at 50. The Poisson metric is the strongest single signal in the model, at 82 for Nyköping against 18 for Syrianska, and it is this that most plausibly lifts the home side's combined win-or-draw probability to 70%. The season records support that split: Nyköping have 12 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses with a notably strong home record of 8 wins and no home draws, whereas Syrianska have 6 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses, including 8 away defeats. Nyköping's goals analysis shows a solid defensive profile of 1.00 conceded per game overall and only 0.80 at home, alongside 1.70 scored per game, while Syrianska concede 2.20 per game and score 1.50, so the hosts' edge in goal difference is meaningful but not overwhelming. Recent form complicates the picture, because Nyköping's last five read L-W-W-L-D with two clean-sheet wins but also a 1-3 home loss to Rågsved, while Syrianska's last five read W-W-D-L-D and include a 3-1 win over Sleipner and a 2-0 away win at Haninge. The head-to-head record is the most awkward evidence for the advice, since Syrianska won the most recent meeting 3-1 in April 2026 and have won four of the last ten encounters, with three draws and three Nyköping wins. Those ten meetings also show goals at both ends in most cases, including 3-3 and 1-1 draws, which suggests the fixture has historically been competitive rather than controlled by either side. Overall, the Poisson and home-record evidence justify the cautious double chance, but the head-to-head and recent-form data mean the draw component carries real weight and the outcome should be treated as uncertain rather than assured.

Predicted winner

Nyköping

Betting advice

Double chance : Nyköping or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Syrianska FC 3–1 Nyköping (04 Apr 2026)
2. Syrianska FC 1–3 Nyköping (14 Sep 2025)
3. Nyköping 2–3 Syrianska FC (12 Apr 2025)
4. Syrianska FC 1–1 Nyköping (31 Aug 2024)
5. Nyköping 3–3 Syrianska FC (04 May 2024)