Derde Divisie · Netherlands
Noordwijk vs Zwaluwen Prediction
Match prediction
The existing model leans toward a Noordwijk win, but its 45% home probability is matched by a 45% draw probability, with only 10% for Zwaluwen, so the advice is far from a clear-cut call. The comparison metrics reinforce that tension: Noordwijk dominates form (65 vs 35), attack (71 vs 29), defence (100 vs 0) and Poisson (100 vs 0), yet head-to-head and goals both sit at 50–50, and the overall total is a narrower 59–41. Noordwijk's team analysis explains much of that edge, with a WWWDWW record, five wins and no defeats from six, plus six clean sheets and no game in which they failed to score at home. Their goals analysis is similarly stingy, as they have conceded zero goals across six matches while averaging 2.00 scored, although their 2.5-goal line shows four unders against two overs, suggesting control rather than a barrage. Zwaluwen's profile is the mirror image in form but not in outcome: an LDLWLW sequence, two wins and three defeats, and a stark home-away split of two home wins versus zero away wins and three away losses. That weakness travels with them into the goals data, where they average just 0.70 scored overall and 0.30 away, while conceding 2.70 away and 1.50 overall, including a 4-0 away loss. The last-five records sharpen the contrast, with Noordwijk taking four wins and a draw while conceding only once across those matches, whereas Zwaluwen alternated wins and losses and were shut out in three of those five. The head-to-head record is the main qualifier, since both meetings were won by the home side — Noordwijk 1-0 in April 2026 and Zwaluwen 2-1 in November 2025 — so it offers no decisive separation and helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the home probability.
- Predicted winner
- Noordwijk
- Betting advice
- Winner : Noordwijk
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Noordwijk | Zwaluwen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Attack | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Defence | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Poisson | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Total | 59.0% | 41.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
Noordwijk
Recent form: WWWDWW.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
Zwaluwen
Recent form: LDLWLW.
Average goals scored: 0.70 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Noordwijk 1–0 Zwaluwen (11 Apr 2026)
- Zwaluwen 2–1 Noordwijk (08 Nov 2025)