New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising Prediction
· Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park
Match prediction
- The model's near-even probabilities, with home and draw both at 35%, justify the double-chance advice rather than a straight win.
- New Mexico's superior recent form and attack ratings support their inclusion, though Phoenix's stronger form score complicates the picture.
- Phoenix's poor away scoring average of 0.90 goals per game weakens their case despite a competitive overall form rating.
- Head-to-head results are split evenly, with home advantage proving decisive in recent meetings at this venue.
- New Mexico's tendency to score late, with over half their goals after the 60th minute, suggests the match could remain tight.
- Both teams' low-scoring profiles, with most games under 2.5 goals, reinforce the draw component of the double chance.
- Predicted winner
- New Mexico United
- Betting advice
- Double chance : New Mexico United or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| Attack | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Defence | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| Poisson | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| H2h | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Goals | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Total | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Team form and goal analysis
New Mexico United
Recent form: LLWWLDWLWDDWWWWWWDWLWDDDLL.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Phoenix Rising
Recent form: LDDDLWWWDLWLDLLWDDLWDWDWLL.
Average goals scored: 1.30 per match.
Head-to-head record
- New Mexico United 4–0 Phoenix Rising (07 Jun 2026)
- Phoenix Rising 3–0 New Mexico United (12 Apr 2026)
- Phoenix Rising 0–1 New Mexico United (05 Oct 2025)
- Phoenix Rising 3–3 New Mexico United (01 Jun 2025)
- New Mexico United 1–2 Phoenix Rising (11 May 2025)