Neustrelitz vs BAK '07 Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives BAK '07 a double-chance edge of draw or away win, with the probabilities split evenly at 45% draw and 45% away against only 10% for Neustrelitz, so the advice rests on avoiding a home win rather than on a clear away favourite. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where BAK '07 dominate form (79 versus 21), defence (76 versus 24) and the Poisson projection (80 versus 20), yet attack is dead level at 50 apiece, suggesting the edge is built on solidity rather than superior firepower. The goals analysis supports that reading, since both sides have scored eight goals across five games at an identical 1.60 average, but Neustrelitz have conceded 13 at 2.60 per game while BAK '07 have shipped only four at 0.80, including two clean sheets. Neustrelitz's last five tell a story of defensive leakage, with four defeats in a 1-4 loss to Sparta Lichtenberg, 1-2 reverses against Reinickendorfer Fuchse and Optik Rathenow, and a 2-3 loss to Lichtenberg, their only win being a 3-2 home success over Siedenbollentin. BAK '07's corresponding record is unbeaten with three wins and two draws, featuring a 1-0 home win over Eintracht Mahlsdorf, a 3-1 away win at Sparta Lichtenberg, a 2-1 home win over Reinickendorfer Fuchse, and goalless and 2-2 draws, which is a small but consistent sample of resilience. The head-to-head record complicates the picture, however, because it leans toward Neustrelitz at 64 versus 36 and includes a 2-1 Neustrelitz home win in May 2026 and a 3-0 BAK '07 home win in August 2024, alongside a 2-1 BAK '07 away win and a goalless draw. This conflict between current form and historical matchup is partly reconciled by the venue: Neustrelitz's most recent head-to-head success came at the Parkstadion, the same ground hosting this fixture, so their 10% win probability may understate a genuine home threat. The total comparison tilts overall toward BAK '07 at 62.80 versus 37.20, and the goal-distribution data show Neustrelitz have never kept a clean sheet while BAK '07 failed to score only once, which jointly supports the draw-or-away advice while leaving the draw as the more plausible single outcome given the even 45% split.

Predicted winner

BAK '07

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or BAK '07

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Neustrelitz 2–1 BAK '07 (30 May 2026)
2. BAK '07 1–2 Neustrelitz (30 Nov 2025)
3. Neustrelitz 0–0 BAK '07 (23 Feb 2025)
4. BAK '07 3–0 Neustrelitz (24 Aug 2024)