Nantong Zhiyun vs Changchun Yatai Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Changchun Yatai a 45% win probability and Nantong Zhiyun only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, so the double-chance advice on draw or Changchun Yatai reflects a fixture where the away side is favoured but a stalemate is equally plausible. That balance is supported by the comparison metrics, where Changchun lead on form (59 versus 41), defence (64 versus 36), head-to-head (93 versus 7), goals (71 versus 29) and overall total (60.7 versus 39.3), while attack is level at 50 for both. The one clear conflict is the Poisson metric, which points the other way at 73 for Nantong against 27 for Changchun, suggesting the underlying chance-creation model sees more in the home side than the results-based indicators do. Changchun's season profile explains much of that edge: 10 wins and only 4 defeats in 23, with 9 clean sheets and a goals-against average of 0.90, although their away record is far weaker than their home form, with just 2 wins and 8 draws on the road. Nantong's campaign is more volatile, with 10 wins and 10 defeats, only 4 clean sheets and a goals-against average of 1.70, and their home form is their stronger suit at 7 wins from 12. The goals analysis reinforces a low-scoring expectation, since Nantong average 1.60 goals for and Changchun only 1.30, and both sides have gone under 2.5 goals in 19 and 20 of 23 matches respectively. Recent form is mixed rather than decisive: Nantong's last five read W, L, D, L, W with a 4-1 win over Shaanxi Union but a 0-1 home loss to Guangxi Hengchen, while Changchun's last five are W, W, L, W, D, including a 6-0 home rout of Dongguan United and a 0-3 away defeat at Guangzhou E-Power. The head-to-head record is the strongest single signal for the advice, with Changchun winning 4 of the last 9 meetings, Nantong 3 and 2 drawn, and Changchun taking the most recent encounter 3-2 in September 2024. Overall, the evidence leans toward Changchun avoiding defeat, but the level attack metric, the Poisson disagreement and the high draw share in both the probabilities and Changchun's away record mean the draw component of the double chance carries real weight rather than being a formality.

Predicted winner

Changchun Yatai

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Changchun Yatai

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Changchun Yatai 3–2 Nantong Zhiyun (14 Sep 2024)
2. Nantong Zhiyun 2–3 Changchun Yatai (05 May 2024)
3. Changchun Yatai 1–1 Nantong Zhiyun (04 Aug 2023)
4. Nantong Zhiyun 0–1 Changchun Yatai (06 May 2023)
5. Changchun Yatai 4–0 Nantong Zhiyun (08 Oct 2020)