Mutilvera vs Avance Ezcabarte Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Mutilvera a 45% home win and 45% draw probability, leaving Avance Ezcabarte only 10%, and its advice combines a Mutilvera-or-draw double chance with under 3.5 goals. That split between home and draw is consistent with the comparison metrics, where form is level at 50.00 for both sides but the other indicators diverge sharply: Avance Ezcabarte leads attack 75.00 to 25.00, while Mutilvera leads defence 67.00 to 33.00 and Poisson 100.00 to 0.00. The goals data explains why the model still leans toward the home side despite the attacking gap, since Mutilvera has conceded only once in three games (0.30 goals against per match) and kept two clean sheets, whereas Avance Ezcabarte has scored six goals (2.00 per match) but also conceded twice. Both teams are unbeaten in their last three league fixtures, with Mutilvera on DWD and Avance Ezcabarte on WDD, so the form parity is real rather than an artefact of the sample. Mutilvera's last five include a 1-0 home win over Gazte Berriak and three draws, and its 0-2 loss to Amorebieta dates from May, which suggests a low-scoring, hard-to-beat profile rather than a dominant one. Avance Ezcabarte's 4-0 win over Txantrea is the standout attacking result, but its two most recent matches were 1-1 draws and its two defeats in the last five were both 1-2, indicating that its scoring threat has not translated into control. The under 3.5 goals component is supported by Mutilvera's record of no match exceeding 1.5 goals and by Avance Ezcabarte's two 1-1 draws, though the 4-0 result shows the away side can occasionally break that pattern. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical record to confirm or contradict the model's home-side lean, and the comparison's h2h and goals fields are both 0.00, meaning they add no independent signal. Overall, the evidence supports a cautious reading: Mutilvera's defence and the draw-heavy recent records justify the double chance, while Avance Ezcabarte's superior attack and the small three-game sample keep the 10% away probability from being dismissed outright.

Predicted winner

Mutilvera

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Mutilvera or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.