Municipal Limeño vs FAS Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output favours FAS but only through a double-chance lens: away win and draw are each rated 45.0%, leaving Municipal Limeño at just 10.0%, so the advice of 'draw or FAS' covers 90% of the modelled outcome space while still acknowledging that a single FAS win is not the majority scenario.
• The comparison metrics broadly reinforce that lean, with FAS ahead on form (57 vs 43), defence (57 vs 43), Poisson (52 vs 48), head-to-head (71 vs 29), goals (73 vs 27) and total (60 vs 40), but attack is level at 50 vs 50, which is the one metric that does not separate the sides and helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the away-win probability.
• The head-to-head record is the strongest single pillar behind the FAS lean: FAS won the most recent meeting 3-1 in July 2026 and have taken four of the last ten encounters, while Municipal Limeño's wins have tended to be narrow 1-0 or 2-1 results and the fixture has also produced two draws, so the 71 vs 29 split reflects a real edge without implying dominance in every match.
• Team performance data qualifies that edge rather than simply confirming it: FAS have 6 wins and only 2 defeats from 10 matches with 4 clean sheets and just 1 failure to score, whereas Municipal Limeño have 5 wins and 4 defeats from 11 with 4 clean sheets but 3 failures to score, suggesting FAS are the more reliable side while Limeño remain capable of the low-scoring, tight games that feed the draw probability.
• The goals analysis adds a further qualification: FAS average 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded, with 33.33% of their goals arriving in the 76-90 minute window, while Municipal Limeño average 1.50 scored and 1.10 conceded and have never exceeded 2.5 goals in a match (2 over, 9 under), so the evidence points to a controlled, relatively low-scoring contest in which FAS's late threat could be decisive but a stalemate remains plausible.
• Recent form offers a counterweight to the season-long picture: Municipal Limeño's last five include three wins, one draw and one defeat with three clean sheets, while FAS's last five show three wins, one draw and one defeat, so both arrive in comparable short-term shape and the model's 45% draw allocation looks like a reasonable hedge against treating FAS's broader statistical superiority as a certain away win.

Predicted winner

FAS

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or FAS

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. FAS 3–1 Municipal Limeño (25 Jul 2026)
2. FAS 2–0 Municipal Limeño (18 May 2026)
3. Municipal Limeño 1–0 FAS (15 May 2026)
4. FAS 2–0 Municipal Limeño (02 Apr 2026)
5. Municipal Limeño 1–1 FAS (05 Feb 2026)