MTE 1904 vs Dorogi FC Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Dorogi FC a 45% win probability and MTE 1904 only 10%, with a further 45% on the draw, so the advice of a draw-or-Dorogi double chance with over 1.5 goals rests on a clear but not overwhelming lean toward the visitors. That lean is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Dorogi lead form 67 to 33, attack 70 to 30 and Poisson 56 to 44, while the defensive scores are level at 50-50 and the total metric is nearly even at 54.5 to 45.5. The head-to-head and goals metrics pull the other way, however, with MTE holding a 60-40 h2h edge and a 56-44 goals edge, which qualifies the away lean rather than contradicting it outright. The team records help explain this tension: Dorogi have six wins, one draw and one loss from eight, including a 6-0 home win and a 0-7 away win, whereas MTE have four wins, three draws and one loss, with their only defeat a 1-3 home loss to Zalaegerszegi TE II. Dorogi's attacking output is far higher at 3.30 goals per game against MTE's 1.80, and their defensive record is slightly better at 0.80 conceded per game versus 0.90, although MTE's away defence is notably tight at 0.30 per away game. The goal-timing data adds nuance: Dorogi score 32% of their goals in the 76-90 window and concede 57.14% in that same late period, while MTE score half their goals in the 46-60 window and concede 57.14% late, suggesting both sides can be vulnerable after the break. The last-five records show Dorogi with three wins and two losses, including a 4-0 home win over Puskás II and a 0-2 home loss to Ujpest, while MTE are unbeaten in four of five with three draws, a 5-1 home win over 1908 SZAC and a 1-3 home loss. The head-to-head record is genuinely mixed across ten meetings, with Dorogi winning four, MTE winning three and three draws, and the most recent two both ending as away wins, which supports the visitors but also shows how often this fixture stays close. Overall, the evidence supports the existing draw-or-Dorogi double chance and the over 1.5 goals line, but the level defensive comparison, MTE's strong head-to-head and goals metrics, and the recent run of draws mean the outcome should be treated as uncertain rather than assured.

Predicted winner

Dorogi FC

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Dorogi FC and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. MTE 1904 0–1 Dorogi FC (05 Apr 2026)
2. Dorogi FC 0–2 MTE 1904 (21 Sep 2025)
3. Dorogi FC 3–0 MTE 1904 (25 May 2025)
4. MTE 1904 2–0 Dorogi FC (10 Nov 2024)
5. Dorogi FC 0–1 MTE 1904 (12 Mar 2023)