MSK Tesla Stropkov vs Lipany Prediction

Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 13:30 UTC

Match prediction

The existing model gives Lipany a 45% win probability and Stropkov only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Lipany rather than a straight away win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Lipany lead on form (67 versus 33) and attack (65 versus 35), while defence is level at 50–50 and head-to-head is split evenly at 50–50. The Poisson metric is the clearest internal conflict, rating Stropkov at 85 and Lipany at 15, so a goal-based model appears far more favourable to the home side than the form and attack indicators, which helps explain why the draw carries as much weight as a Lipany win. The season records sharpen that tension: Stropkov have three wins, one draw and three losses from seven, while Lipany have five wins and two losses with no draws, so Lipany's stronger overall profile comes with a binary, all-or-nothing pattern. Lipany's goals analysis is heavily home-weighted, with 18 of their 20 goals scored at home (4.50 per home game) against only two away (0.70 per away game), and both of their failed-to-score matches came on the road, which qualifies their attacking edge in this away fixture. Stropkov show the opposite home/away split defensively, conceding just 0.50 per home game versus 2.00 away, so their solid home defence could frustrate a Lipany side whose away scoring is limited. The last-five records reinforce the same pattern: Stropkov have one win, one draw and three losses, including a 3-0 home win over Partizán Bardejov but also 1-2 and 0-1 defeats, while Lipany have four wins and one loss, though that loss was a 0-3 away defeat at Stará Ľubovňa and their 8-1 win came at home. The head-to-head record is genuinely balanced across ten meetings, with three draws, three Stropkov wins and four Lipany wins, and the most recent fixture was a 0-2 Lipany victory at Stropkov in May 2026, which supports the away side without making the outcome decisive. Overall, the form, attack and recent head-to-head evidence lean toward the draw-or-Lipany advice, but the Poisson split, Stropkov's strong home defence and Lipany's weak away scoring mean the draw component of that double chance looks at least as plausible as an away win.

Predicted winner: Lipany
Betting advice: Double chance : draw or Lipany
Home win probability: 10%
Draw probability: 45%
Away win probability: 45%
Goals market: —

Prediction comparison

Factor	MSK Tesla Stropkov	Lipany
Form	33.0%	67.0%
Attack	35.0%	65.0%
Defence	50.0%	50.0%
Poisson	85.0%	15.0%
H2h	50.0%	50.0%
Goals	54.0%	46.0%
Total	51.2%	48.8%

Team form and goal analysis