Motril vs Alhaurino Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Motril via a double chance combined with under -3.5 goals, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for Alhaurino, so the advice is essentially a low-scoring, avoid-defeat position rather than a strong home-victory call. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Motril leads on form (56 vs 44), attack (60 vs 40), defence (60 vs 40), goals (56 vs 44) and overall totals (56.4 vs 43.6), yet the head-to-head split sits level at 50-50 and the Poisson column is an extreme 100-0 in Motril's favour, a divergence that suggests the model's underlying ratings are far more one-sided than the fixture history warrants. Motril's three league games produced a DDW form line with two draws and no defeats, one clean sheet and a single failure to score, while Alhaurino's DLW includes a home win, a home draw and an away loss, with two blanks in three matches and a clean sheet of their own. The goals analysis supports the under element: Motril average 1.00 scored and 0.70 conceded, Alhaurino 0.70 scored and 1.00 conceded, and neither side has gone over 2.5 or 3.5 goals in any of their three fixtures, which is consistent with a -3.5 line. Alhaurino's away profile is the clearest weakness, since their only road outing yielded a 2-0 defeat at Almería II with no goals scored, and their two goals against per away game contrasts with Motril's more balanced home and away concession rate. The last-five records add nuance rather than clarity, because Motril's sequence includes a 2-1 win at Malaga City, a 1-1 home draw with Torre del Mar, a 0-2 home loss to Recreativo Huelva, a 0-0 at Huétor Vega and a 1-1 draw with Arenas Armilla, showing recent scoring difficulty, while Alhaurino's run of a 2-1 home win, a 0-2 away loss, a 0-0 home draw and two older results from May is a small and partly stale sample. The head-to-head record is genuinely balanced across six meetings, with Motril winning 2-0 at home in November 2025 and Alhaurino winning 1-0 at home in March 2026, plus two Alhaurino home wins, one Motril away win and one 1-1 draw, so recent meetings have alternated rather than established dominance. Taken together, the evidence supports the double-chance side of the advice more than a decisive Motril win, while the low goal totals across both teams' short samples and the absence of any over-3.5 match make the under component plausible, though the tiny three-game samples and the conflicting Poisson and head-to-head signals mean this should be treated as a tentative read rather than a firm conclusion.

Predicted winner

Motril

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Motril or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Alhaurino 0–1 Motril (15 Mar 2026)
2. Motril 2–0 Alhaurino (02 Nov 2025)
3. Alhaurino 1–0 Motril (20 Feb 2022)
4. Motril 1–1 Alhaurino (24 Oct 2021)
5. Motril 1–2 Alhaurino (21 Mar 2021)