Motala vs Herrestads Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a draw or Herrestads win, assigning 45% to each of those outcomes and only 10% to a Motala victory, so the double-chance advice is essentially a hedge against the two most likely results. That stance is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Herrestads dominate form (77 versus 23), defence (67 versus 33), head-to-head (85 versus 15), goals (62 versus 38) and total (66 versus 34), while Motala's only clear edge comes from the Poisson measure at 51 versus 49. The season records tell a similar story: Herrestads have 9 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses from 22 matches, whereas Motala sit on 5 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses, and Herrestads also avoided scoring in only 2 matches compared with Motala's 7. Motala's goals analysis shows a modest 1.30 scored and 1.50 conceded per game, with 41% of their goals arriving in the 31-45 window, while Herrestads average 1.90 scored and 1.70 conceded, with a notable 31.58% of goals against them coming after the 76th minute. The last-five records add nuance rather than a clean trend, as Motala drew three, lost two and scored in four of those games, while Herrestads won three, drew one and lost one, including a 3-0 home win over Vänersborgs IF. The head-to-head record is the strongest single counterweight to a Motala result, since Herrestads won the most recent meeting 1-0 and have two wins and three draws across the last five encounters, with Motala's only win in that sequence coming in June 2024. However, the two 2-2 draws in 2025 and the narrow 1-0 margin in 2026 suggest these fixtures have often been tight, which helps explain why the draw carries the same 45% probability as a Herrestads win rather than the model favouring an outright away victory. The Poisson split of 51 to 49 is the main conflicting signal, implying the underlying chance creation is nearly even and cautioning against treating Herrestads' broader statistical superiority as decisive. Overall, the evidence supports the existing draw-or-Herrestads advice as a reasonable reflection of Herrestads' stronger form, defence and head-to-head edge, but the near-even Poisson values and recent competitive meetings mean the outcome remains uncertain rather than assured.

Predicted winner

Herrestads

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Herrestads

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Herrestads 1–0 Motala (07 Jun 2026)
2. Herrestads 2–2 Motala (09 Aug 2025)
3. Motala 2–2 Herrestads (03 May 2025)
4. Motala 0–1 Herrestads (12 Oct 2024)
5. Herrestads 2–1 Motala (15 Jun 2024)