Spain · Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Moralo vs Gévora Prediction

Moralo badgeMoralo vs Gévora badgeGévora

Match prediction

  • Moralo's unbeaten four-match form and perfect home record justify the double-chance advice, though the model's 45% home win probability shows the draw is a genuine alternative.
  • Gévora's away form is starkly split, with both defeats and a failure to score coming on the road, which supports Moralo avoiding defeat.
  • Moralo's defensive edge is the clearest separator, conceding only one home goal while Gévora shipped five in a single away loss.
  • The head-to-head is perfectly balanced with each side winning at home, so home advantage rather than dominance underpins the prediction.
  • Gévora's away goals all came in one match, making their attacking threat unreliable and reinforcing the draw as the main risk to a home win.
  • Both teams scoring in every Moralo match suggests goals are likely, but the model offers no under-over advice, so that trend should not be overread.
Predicted winner
Moralo
Betting advice
Double chance : Moralo or draw
Home win probability
45%
Draw probability
45%
Away win probability
10%
Goals market
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Prediction comparison

FactorMoraloGévora
Form59.0%41.0%
Attack53.0%47.0%
Defence67.0%33.0%
Poisson100.0%0.0%
H2h50.0%50.0%
Goals50.0%50.0%
Total55.8%44.2%

Team form and goal analysis

Moralo

Recent form: WWWD.

Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.

Gévora

Recent form: LWDW.

Average goals scored: 1.80 per match.

Head-to-head record

  1. Gévora 2–1 Moralo (19 Apr 2026)
  2. Moralo 2–1 Gévora (14 Dec 2025)
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