Montijo vs Jaraíz Prediction

Match prediction

• The model splits home and draw evenly at 45 percent each, leaving Jaraíz a minimal 10 percent, which directly supports the double-chance advice.
• Montijo's perfect home scoring record contrasts with two away blanks, so the venue tilt justifies favoring them only alongside the draw.
• Jaraíz's superior form and attack ratings conflict with Montijo's head-to-head and goals edge, explaining why the model avoids a straight home win.
• Both sides concede in every match and neither keeps clean sheets, so the draw component carries real weight rather than serving as filler.
• Montijo's away defeats and Jaraíz's stronger recent form caution against reading the double chance as comfortable home dominance.
• The Poisson split of 100 to 0 is an extreme outlier against the balanced comparison metrics, so the safer double chance appropriately absorbs that uncertainty.

Predicted winner

Montijo

Betting advice

Double chance : Montijo or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Jaraíz 1–1 Montijo (05 Apr 2026)
2. Montijo 1–0 Jaraíz (23 Nov 2025)
3. Jaraíz 1–0 Montijo (11 May 2025)
4. Montijo 2–1 Jaraíz (12 Jan 2025)