Montecchio Gallo vs Foligno Calcio Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Montecchio Gallo via a double chance covering a win or draw, with home and draw probabilities tied at 45% each and only 10% assigned to Foligno Calcio, so the advice reflects a strong but not absolute home-side tilt. That tilt is only partly echoed in the comparison metrics: Foligno hold the better form and attack scores (56 versus 44 in each), while Montecchio Gallo's clearest edge comes from defence (63 versus 38) and especially the Poisson estimate (71 versus 29), which is the single most home-friendly input. The team-level records add nuance, since Montecchio Gallo's LWWD form over four matches includes two clean sheets but both came away from home, whereas Foligno's WWLW shows three wins yet also a 4-1 away defeat that inflates their goals-against away average to 2.00. Montecchio Gallo's goals profile is modest and balanced, with four goals scored and three conceded across four games, and their defensive concessions cluster late (two in the 61-75 window and one in 76-90), suggesting vulnerability after the break rather than throughout. Foligno score slightly more overall (five goals, 1.30 per game) and spread their goals late, with half arriving in the 76-90 window, but their defensive record is split sharply between a 0.50 home average and a 2.00 away average. The last-five records reinforce that split: Foligno won four of five, including a 1-0 home win over Notaresco and a 1-0 away win at Pietralunga, yet their only loss was the 4-1 away collapse at Recanatese, while Montecchio Gallo's sequence is steadier but lower-scoring, featuring a 0-0 away draw at Recanatese and a 1-2 home loss to Santegidiese. The head-to-head section is empty, so no direct meeting history can support or contradict the model's lean, and the goals comparison fields for both sides are also zero, meaning the goals-based comparison contributes nothing here. Overall, the 45-45-10 split and the double-chance advice look driven mainly by the Poisson and defensive metrics rather than by form or attack, and the small four-to-five-match samples mean those form figures should be treated as indicative rather than decisive.

Predicted winner

Montecchio Gallo

Betting advice

Double chance : Montecchio Gallo or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.