Germany · Oberliga - Niederrhein
Monheim vs SW Essen Prediction
Match prediction
- The model rates Monheim and the draw equally at 35%, so the double-chance advice reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a clear home edge.
- Monheim's attack and Poisson metrics strongly favor them, but their weaker recent form and poor head-to-head record against SW Essen temper that advantage.
- Monheim's home record includes two wins and two clean sheets, while SW Essen have yet to win away, supporting the home-or-draw protection.
- SW Essen's away form shows one win and two draws from three, and their head-to-head dominance suggests the draw leg carries real value.
- Both teams score consistently, but Monheim concede fewer goals on average, which slightly favors them in a match the model sees as evenly balanced.
- The narrow two-point gap between total home and away ratings confirms this is a close fixture, justifying the cautious double-chance approach over a straight win.
- Predicted winner
- Monheim
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Monheim or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Monheim | SW Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Attack | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| Defence | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Poisson | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| H2h | 29.0% | 71.0% |
| Goals | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Total | 47.8% | 52.2% |
Team form and goal analysis
Monheim
Recent form: DWDWLLL.
Average goals scored: 2.00 per match.
SW Essen
Recent form: LLDWDLL.
Average goals scored: 1.40 per match.
Head-to-head record
- SW Essen 0–1 Monheim (19 Apr 2026)
- Monheim 0–0 SW Essen (25 Oct 2025)
- SW Essen 3–1 Monheim (18 May 2025)
- Monheim 1–2 SW Essen (02 Oct 2024)
- SW Essen 3–2 Monheim (04 Jun 2023)