Mogren vs Kom Prediction

Match prediction

• Kom's 45% win probability and 45% draw probability justify the double chance, since only a 10% home win would defeat it.
• Mogren's 20% form score against Kom's 80% reflects a clear recent-quality gap that supports the away-favoured advice.
• Kom's superior attack, defence and Poisson ratings all point the same direction, reinforcing the model's lean toward the visitors.
• Mogren's home record of four defeats without a win materially weakens any case for the 10% home-win probability.
• The lone head-to-head, a Kom away win over Mogren, is a small sample but consistent with the broader away-favoured evidence.
• Mogren's 75% goals rating conflicts with their poor form and home record, so the draw component of the advice remains a sensible hedge.

Predicted winner

Kom

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Kom

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Kom 1–3 Mogren (16 Aug 2026)