Mladá Boleslav II vs Varnsdorf Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Varnsdorf a combined 90% chance of avoiding defeat (45% draw, 45% away win) against Mladá Boleslav II, and pairs that with a combo advice of draw-or-Varnsdorf plus over 2.5 goals, so the question is whether the supporting evidence is consistent with that lean. The comparison metrics are mixed rather than uniformly pro-Varnsdorf: form and attack are dead level at 50.00 each, and the Poisson split actually favours the home side 59 to 41, which conflicts with the away-leaning probabilities and suggests the model is weighting something other than raw chance creation. Defence (58 home vs 42 away) and goals (29 home vs 71 away) both tilt toward Varnsdorf, and the head-to-head metric is emphatic at 13 home versus 88 away, while the aggregate totals of 43.20 home and 57.00 away give only a modest edge to the visitors. Varnsdorf's own record is the stronger body of work: 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 7 games, with 22 goals scored (3.10 per game) against 9 conceded (1.30), including a 6-1 home win and a 0-6 away win, and they have failed to score in none of their matches. Mladá Boleslav II sit at 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in 6, scoring 11 and conceding 11, so their 1.80 goals per game at both ends points to a more porous and less prolific profile than the visitors. The goal-timing data reinforce the over 2.5 element: Varnsdorf score 31.82% of their goals in the 16-30 window and another 31.82% in the 76-90 window, while Mladá Boleslav II concede 36.36% in the 76-90 window, so late goals look plausible from both directions. The last-five records, however, qualify the away lean: Varnsdorf's most recent outings include a 0-2 home loss to Jablonec II and a 1-5 home loss to Slavia Praha, whereas Mladá Boleslav II's five games produced two wins, a draw and two defeats with only one clean sheet, so neither side arrives in convincing defensive form. The head-to-head record is the clearest single support for the advice, with Varnsdorf winning 2-0 at home in May 2026 and drawing 1-1 at Lokotrans Arena in October 2025, plus a 2-1 friendly win in 2023, meaning Mladá Boleslav II have not beaten them in the three recorded meetings. Overall, the away-or-draw and over 2.5 combination is supported by the defensive, goals, head-to-head and scoring-distribution evidence, but it is qualified by the level form and attack metrics, the home-favouring Poisson split, and Varnsdorf's recent heavy home defeats, so the read is plausible rather than secure.

Predicted winner

Varnsdorf

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Varnsdorf and +2.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+2.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Varnsdorf 2–0 Mladá Boleslav II (24 May 2026)
2. Mladá Boleslav II 1–1 Varnsdorf (26 Oct 2025)
3. Mladá Boleslav II 1–2 Varnsdorf (15 Feb 2023)