Mijas Las Lagunas vs Tamaraceite Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Mijas Las Lagunas with a 45% home win and 45% draw, leaving Tamaraceite at just 10%, and the advised combo pairs that double chance with under 3.5 goals. That asymmetry is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Mijas dominate form (100 versus 0), attack (67 versus 33) and the Poisson measure (100 versus 0), though the overall totals are far closer at 56 versus 44, suggesting the edge is real but not overwhelming. The team analysis supports the same direction but with a caveat: Mijas are unbeaten in three (two draws and a loss, form LDD) without a single win, while Tamaraceite have lost all three (LLL), so this is a contest between a hard-to-beat side and a struggling one rather than between two in-form teams. Mijas' goals profile is modest, with two goals scored and six conceded across three games, but the damage is concentrated in a 4-0 defeat at Puente Genil, and their home record shows one goal for and one against in a single home fixture. Tamaraceite's numbers are more concerning, with one goal scored and five conceded in three matches, no clean sheets, and two failures to score, which helps explain why the model's away probability is so low. The goals analysis adds nuance to the under 3.5 advice: Mijas have stayed under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 goals in all three matches, and Tamaraceite have also stayed under 3.5 in all three, even though both teams have seen over 0.5 goals in every game. The last-five records show Mijas mixing draws with a heavy loss and a 1-0 win, while Tamaraceite's sequence is four defeats and a win, with their only goals in that run coming in a 3-2 loss at Tenerife and a 2-0 win over Guijuelo. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical record to confirm or contradict the model's read on this fixture. Taken together, the evidence points to a low-scoring game where Mijas are more likely to avoid defeat than to win outright, which is consistent with the double chance and under 3.5 combination, but the small three-match samples and Mijas' lack of a win mean the prediction should be treated as a lean rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Mijas Las Lagunas

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Mijas Las Lagunas or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.