Miami FC vs Sporting JAX Prediction
· Riccardo Silva Stadium
Match prediction
- Miami's superior form, attack, defence and Poisson ratings justify the home-or-draw advice, though the 45-45 split shows the model sees little separation between win and draw.
- Sporting JAX's 18 losses and zero clean sheets across 26 matches make an away win unlikely, supporting the double-chance selection.
- Miami's recent five-match run of two wins and two draws contrasts sharply with JAX's four defeats, reinforcing the home side's edge.
- Both head-to-head meetings ended in Miami away wins, a small but one-sided sample that strengthens confidence in the home side avoiding defeat.
- JAX concede 2.7 goals per game on average, a defensive weakness that gives Miami a clear route to at least a draw.
- Miami's own modest scoring rate and 10 failures to score suggest the draw half of the double chance carries real weight.
- Predicted winner
- Miami FC
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Miami FC or draw
- Home win probability
- 45%
- Draw probability
- 45%
- Away win probability
- 10%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Miami FC | Sporting JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| Attack | 58.0% | 42.0% |
| Defence | 63.0% | 38.0% |
| Poisson | 67.0% | 33.0% |
| H2h | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Goals | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| Total | 66.4% | 33.8% |
Team form and goal analysis
Miami FC
Recent form: LDWWDDLWDLWLDLDWLLDLLLDDWW.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
Sporting JAX
Recent form: LDLLLLLLLDDLLLDWDLLLWLWLLL.
Average goals scored: 1.20 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Sporting JAX 0–1 Miami FC (26 Apr 2026)
- Sporting JAX 2–4 Miami FC (26 Mar 2026)