Mexico vs Colombia Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Mexico a 35% win probability and Colombia 30%, with a 35% draw, so the advice of a double chance on Mexico or draw rests on a narrow edge rather than a clear favourite. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Mexico lead on form (65 versus 35), attack (56 versus 44) and especially defence (75 versus 25), yet the head-to-head split of 9 to 91 and goals split of 29 to 71 run strongly against them. The Poisson values are both 0.00, which means that particular comparison offers no separating signal and should not be read as support for either side. Mexico's team analysis shows a W-W-W-D-D-W-W-W sequence across eight matches with six wins, two draws and no defeats, six clean sheets and only two goals conceded, while Colombia's L-L-W-W record covers just four matches, all at home, with two wins and two losses. The goals analysis sharpens that contrast: Mexico average 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded, whereas Colombia average 1.80 scored but 1.50 conceded, and Colombia's defensive record is built entirely on home fixtures with no away data. Mexico's last five include a 2-3 loss to England but four wins with clean sheets against Ecuador, Czechia, South Korea and South Africa, while Colombia's last five show three wins, two goalless draws and only one goal conceded in the three victories. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight, with Colombia winning 4-0, 3-2 and 3-2 in the three completed meetings, all as the away side, which explains why the model's probabilities remain close despite Mexico's stronger recent profile. The small samples matter here: Colombia have played only four matches and none away from home, so their 1.50 goals-against average and 25 defence rating may overstate vulnerability, while Mexico's unbeaten run is longer but includes a defeat in the last-five list that sits outside the eight-match form string. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance as a hedge rather than a confident selection, since Mexico's form, defence and clean-sheet record point one way while the head-to-head history and Colombia's efficient low-scoring wins point the other.

Predicted winner

Mexico

Betting advice

Double chance : Mexico or draw

Home win probability

35%

Draw probability

35%

Away win probability

30%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Mexico 0–4 Colombia (12 Oct 2025)
2. Mexico 2–3 Colombia (17 Dec 2023)
3. Mexico 2–3 Colombia (28 Sep 2022)
4. Mexico —–— Colombia (30 May 2020)