Mexico vs Chile Prediction

Match prediction

• Mexico's superior form, attack, and defensive metrics justify the double-chance advice, though the model's equal 45% home and draw probabilities show the win is far from certain.
• Chile's poor recent form and leaky defense, conceding two goals per away match, support Mexico avoiding defeat despite Chile's head-to-head edge.
• Mexico's low-scoring profile, averaging 1.5 goals with most matches under 2.5, explains why the draw carries equal probability to a home win.
• Chile's head-to-head advantage is built on older results, including a 7-0 win from 2016, so it may overstate their current threat.
• Mexico's recent draws against Peru and Colombia, plus a loss to the USA, show they often fail to convert dominance into victories, reinforcing the draw risk.
• Chile's away form of one win in four, with no clean sheets, makes an outright upset unlikely, aligning with the low 10% away probability.

Predicted winner

Mexico

Betting advice

Double chance : Mexico or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Mexico 2–2 Chile (09 Dec 2021)
2. Mexico 3–1 Chile (23 Mar 2019)
3. Mexico 0–1 Chile (17 Oct 2018)
4. Mexico 0–7 Chile (19 Jun 2016)
5. Chile 3–3 Mexico (16 Jun 2015)