Meux vs Onhaye Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Meux a 45% home win and 45% draw probability against Onhaye, leaving only 10% for an away win, which frames the "Meux or draw" double chance as the natural expression of that split. That output is broadly consistent with the comparison metrics, where Meux leads on form (63.00 vs 38.00), defence (77.00 vs 23.00), head-to-head (62.00 vs 38.00), goals (57.00 vs 43.00) and total (57.50 vs 42.70), though the Poisson metric is the notable exception, favouring Onhaye 68.00 to 32.00 and suggesting the model's own goal-expectation layer is less convinced by the home side. The team analysis helps explain that tension: Meux's DWWWL run includes three wins and a draw with only three goals conceded in five games, while Onhaye's LWLWL is perfectly alternating and winless at home, with all three defeats coming in home fixtures. Onhaye's away record is actually stronger than their overall form suggests, with two wins from two away matches and just one goal conceded on the road, so their low 10% win probability may understate a genuine away threat. The goals analysis reinforces the defensive contrast, as Meux concede only 0.60 per game overall and 0.30 away, whereas Onhaye concede 2.00 per game and 2.70 at home, including a 2-5 loss to Albert Quévy-Mons. Meux's attacking output is modest at 1.40 goals per game, and their 2-1 home win over Union Saint-Gilloise II is their only home victory, so the 45% draw share reflects a real possibility of a low-scoring stalemate rather than a clear home dominance. The head-to-head record supports that caution, with the last five meetings producing two draws, one Meux home win, and two Onhaye away wins, including a 1-0 Onhaye victory at this same venue in February 2025. Overall, the evidence points to Meux avoiding defeat as the more defensible side of the double chance, but the Poisson disagreement, Onhaye's perfect away record, and the recent head-to-head results mean the draw component carries much of the value and the outcome remains genuinely uncertain.

Predicted winner

Meux

Betting advice

Double chance : Meux or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Meux 1–1 Onhaye (11 May 2025)
2. Meux 0–1 Onhaye (02 Feb 2025)
3. Onhaye 0–0 Meux (31 Aug 2024)
4. Onhaye 1–2 Meux (11 Jan 2020)
5. Meux 1–0 Onhaye (07 Sep 2019)