Mes Soongoun vs Mes Kerman Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's existing output leans toward Mes Kerman via a combo double chance (draw or Mes Kerman) with under 3.5 goals, but the probabilities are unusually flat: away 45% and draw 45%, with home only 10%. That near-tie between the away win and the draw is the central tension, and it explains why the advice hedges with a double chance rather than backing Mes Kerman outright.
• The comparison metrics broadly reinforce the away lean but with important gaps. Mes Kerman dominates attack (100 vs 0), goals (80 vs 20), head-to-head (75 vs 25) and total (63.8 vs 36.3), yet form (50 vs 50), defence (50 vs 50) and Poisson (0 vs 0) are dead level. The Poisson parity is notable because it suggests the goal-expectation model itself does not separate the sides, so the away edge rests more on attack and historical scoring than on a projected goal superiority.
• Both teams' two-match league records are nearly symmetrical and low-scoring, which supports the under 3.5 component. Mes Soongoun have a draw and a loss (0-0 at home to Mes Rafsanjan, 0-2 away at Saipa), scoring zero goals in both and failing to score in both, while Mes Kerman have a draw and a loss (1-1 away at Fard Alborz, 0-1 home to Saipa), scoring once and conceding twice. Neither has won, and both have one clean sheet or fewer, so the evidence points to a tight, low-output match rather than a decisive away performance.
• The goals analysis sharpens that low-scoring picture. Mes Soongoun have 0 goals for and 2 against across two games (0.00 scored per game, 1.00 conceded), with both goals conceded split between the 46-60 and 91-105 windows, and every under/over line from 0.5 to 4.5 shows them under. Mes Kerman have 1 goal for and 2 against (0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded), with their only goal in the 46-60 window and both concessions in the first half. Both teams' totals sit under 1.5 and 2.5 in every match, which is consistent with the -3.5 goals advice even if that line is generous.
• The last-five records add nuance that partly undercuts a strong away read. Mes Soongoun's five include two wins (1-0 home to Shahrdari Noshahr, 1-0 away at Naft Gachsaran), two 0-0 draws and a 0-2 loss, showing they can grind out narrow wins and clean sheets. Mes Kerman's five show no wins, with two draws (1-1 at Fard Alborz, 0-0 home to Naft Bandar Abbas) and two losses (0-1 home to Saipa, 0-1 away at Sanat Naft). On this broader sample, Mes Kerman's winless run is a caution against treating the 45% away probability as a firm edge.
• The head-to-head record is the strongest single support for the away side but is also the most draw-heavy. Across six meetings, Mes Kerman have three wins or draws in their favour per the 75/25 split, including a 2-0 home win and a 1-0 away win, while three matches ended level (0-0, 0-0, 1-1) and Mes Soongoun's only win was 1-0 at home in September 2025. The recurring 0-0 and 1-1 results align with the low-scoring, draw-inclusive advice, and the small six-match sample means the 75/25 head-to-head edge should be treated as a tendency rather than a reliable separator.

Predicted winner

Mes Kerman

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Mes Kerman and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Mes Kerman 0–0 Mes Soongoun (15 Feb 2026)
2. Mes Soongoun 0–1 Mes Kerman (23 Sep 2025)
3. Mes Soongoun 0–0 Mes Kerman (23 Jan 2025)
4. Mes Kerman 2–0 Mes Soongoun (09 Sep 2024)
5. Mes Soongoun 1–1 Mes Kerman (10 Jun 2024)