Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model points to UD Logroñés as the winner, with probabilities of 0% for a home win and 50% each for a draw and an away win, so the advice is best read as a lean toward the visitors rather than a decisive edge. That lean is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Logroñés lead form 77 to 23, attack and defence both 67 to 33, and the Poisson split 86 to 14, while the head-to-head, goals and total comparison fields are all empty or zero and therefore offer no independent signal. M\u00e9rida's own record is the weakest part of their case: a WLLL form line across four matches with one win, three defeats, only four goals scored and six conceded, including a 3-4 home loss to Mirandes and two away blanks. Logroñés counter with a WWWD record, three wins and a draw, eight goals scored against three conceded, and a 0-3 away win at UD Ourense that shows they can travel effectively. The goals analysis sharpens the contrast, as M\u00e9rida average 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded per match while Logroñés average 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, with their away scoring rate of 2.50 per game standing out. The last-five records broadly agree with the season data, since M\u00e9rida's two wins came at home against Deportivo La Coru\u00f1a II and Alcorcon but were followed by three straight defeats, whereas Logroñés have won four and drawn one, including a 4-0 home win over Huesca II. One qualification is that M\u00e9rida's home form is not uniformly poor, with one win and one defeat at home and a clean sheet there, so the 0% home probability looks harsher than the underlying home sample of two matches justifies. The head-to-head section is empty, so there is no historical record to confirm or contradict the model's preference, and the small four-match samples mean the form and Poisson gaps should be treated as indicative rather than conclusive. On balance, the evidence consistently favours Logroñés, but the draw probability of 50% and M\u00e9rida's limited home resilience suggest the away-win advice carries real uncertainty.

Predicted winner

UD Logroñés

Betting advice

Winner : UD Logroñés

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

No recorded head-to-head matches are available.