Mercadal vs Constància Prediction

Match prediction

• The model's 45% draw and 45% Constància split makes the double-chance advice the logical expression of a near-even contest.
• Constància's superior form, attack, defence and head-to-head scores support their edge, though the Poisson split is nearly even.
• Mercadal's modest home record and lack of clean sheets at home weaken their case despite occasional scoring.
• Constància's away form is mixed, with a loss and draw on the road, qualifying confidence in an outright away win.
• Both teams' goal data show every match staying under 3.5, reinforcing the under component of the advice.
• Head-to-head history leans heavily to Constància, but recent meetings were tighter, so the draw leg remains valuable.

Predicted winner

Constància

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Constància and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Mercadal 1–4 Constància (15 Apr 2026)
2. Constància 0–2 Mercadal (02 Nov 2025)
3. Mercadal 0–1 Constància (15 Mar 2025)
4. Constància 2–1 Mercadal (20 Nov 2024)
5. Constància 1–0 Mercadal (24 Feb 2024)