Marchamalo vs Tarancón Prediction

Match prediction

• Tarancón's perfect head-to-head record and superior Poisson share justify the away lean, though the model's equal draw probability tempers outright confidence.
• Marchamalo's unbeaten home record and clean sheets in both home matches suggest the draw component of the double chance carries real weight.
• Both attacks average two goals per game, supporting the +1.5 goals element, while each defence concedes enough to make a low-scoring outcome unlikely.
• Tarancón's away form is volatile, with a six-goal win and a narrow loss, so the double chance sensibly hedges against an outright away result.
• Marchamalo's tendency to score in every match and Tarancón's failure to keep a clean sheet reinforce the expectation of at least two goals.
• The modest 10% home win probability aligns with Marchamalo's weaker overall form profile despite their solid defensive record at home.

Predicted winner

Tarancón

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : draw or Tarancón and +1.5 goals

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

+1.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Marchamalo 0–1 Tarancón (18 Apr 2026)
2. Tarancón 2–1 Marchamalo (06 Dec 2025)
3. Marchamalo 2–3 Tarancón (01 Feb 2025)
4. Tarancón 2–1 Marchamalo (22 Sep 2024)
5. Marchamalo 0–2 Tarancón (04 May 2024)