Marbelli vs Torre del Mar Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Marbelli with a double-chance call of “Marbelli or draw,” expressed as 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice is essentially a bet against a Torre del Mar win rather than a confident home victory. That caution is echoed by the comparison metrics, where Marbelli’s form (64.00), attack (67.00) and Poisson (53.00) scores are clearly higher, yet the defence scores are identical at 50.00 and the head-to-head (36.00 versus 64.00) and goals (43.00 versus 57.00) splits actually favour Torre del Mar. The overall totals are much closer, 52.20 to 47.80, which suggests the model sees a narrow edge rather than dominance and helps explain why the draw probability is as high as the home one. Marbelli’s team analysis shows a three-match form line of DWW with two wins and one draw, no defeats, and a goals-for average of 2.00 against 1.00 conceded, supporting the stronger form and attack ratings. Torre del Mar’s WDL record over the same three matches, with one win, one draw and one loss, is less convincing, and their goals-for average of 1.00 against 1.00 conceded is noticeably lighter in attack, though their single clean sheet and one missed penalty add a note of unpredictability. The last-five records extend that contrast: Marbelli have three wins, one draw and one loss across their five listed matches, including a 3-1 away win at Huétor Vega and a 2-1 home win over Ciudad de Torredonjimeno, while Torre del Mar have one win, one draw and three defeats, with their most recent outing a 1-2 home loss to Melilla. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight to the home-side case, since the four meetings include a 0-0 draw and three Marbelli wins by 2-1, 2-1 and 1-0, meaning Torre del Mar have never beaten Marbelli in this sample and the h2h metric’s 64.00 away score reflects something other than recent results. The goal-timing data adds further texture: Marbelli have scored six goals spread across the 16-30, 31-45, 46-60 and 76-90 windows, while conceding two of their three goals in the opening 0-15 minutes, and Torre del Mar have scored three goals in the 31-45, 46-60 and 61-75 windows while conceding across the 16-30, 61-75 and 76-90 periods. Both teams’ under-over profiles point to low-scoring matches, with Marbelli seeing over 2.5 goals in only one of three games and Torre del Mar never exceeding 1.5 goals in their three fixtures, which is consistent with the model’s refusal to commit to an over-under selection. Taken together, the evidence supports a cautious double chance rather than a strong home win: Marbelli’s form, attack and Poisson edge justify favouring them, but the equal defensive scores, Torre del Mar’s superior goals and head-to-head metrics, and the very low 10% away probability leave the draw as a genuine alternative and make the advice more about avoiding defeat than expecting a comfortable Marbelli victory.

Predicted winner

Marbelli

Betting advice

Double chance : Marbelli or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Torre del Mar 0–0 Marbelli (01 Apr 2026)
2. Marbelli 1–2 Torre del Mar (28 Sep 2025)
3. Torre del Mar 1–2 Marbelli (26 Jan 2025)
4. Marbelli 0–1 Torre del Mar (15 Sep 2024)