Mallorca vs Almeria Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Mallorca via a double chance with under 3.5 goals, expressed as 45% home, 45% draw and only 10% away, so the advice is essentially a bet against an Almeria win rather than a strong home endorsement. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Mallorca's defensive score of 67 and perfect Poisson value of 100 contrast sharply with Almeria's attack score of 54 and zero Poisson value, even though Almeria's form score of 47 sits close to Mallorca's 53. The team analysis reinforces this split: both sides have four wins from six, but Mallorca's WLWDWW includes five clean sheets and no home defeats, while Almeria's WLLWWW is more volatile, with two away losses and only three clean sheets. Mallorca's goals analysis is strikingly lopsided, with 7 of 8 goals scored at home and a 0.00 home goals-against average, whereas Almeria have scored 8 at home but just 2 away, suggesting their attacking output may not travel. The last-five records qualify this further, as Mallorca's sequence of 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 3-0 and 0-2 shows four clean sheets but also a failure to score in two of five, while Almeria's 2-0, 2-0, 3-2, 0-1 and 0-1 shows three wins followed by two away blanks. The head-to-head record is the clearest counterweight, since the last two meetings were draws and Almeria have won three of the ten listed encounters, including a 3-0 home win in 2023, so the 62-38 h2h split in Mallorca's favour is not overwhelming. The goals data also supports the under 3.5 element, as neither team has gone over 3.5 in any of their six matches, and both show six unders at that line, which makes a high-scoring game look unlikely. However, the 45% draw probability is a meaningful qualification, because Mallorca's two recent scoreless outings and the pair of recent 0-0 and 2-2 draws in this fixture suggest the draw is a live outcome rather than a residual category. Overall, the evidence points to a low-scoring, tight match where Mallorca's home defence and Almeria's away scoring struggles support the double chance and under 3.5, but the small six-match samples and the head-to-head draw pattern mean the existing advice should be treated as a modest lean rather than a confident call.

Predicted winner

Mallorca

Betting advice

Combo Double chance : Mallorca or draw and -3.5 goals

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

-3.5

Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Mallorca 2–2 Almeria (19 May 2024)
2. Almeria 0–0 Mallorca (17 Dec 2023)
3. Almeria 3–0 Mallorca (20 May 2023)
4. Mallorca 1–0 Almeria (17 Sep 2022)
5. Mallorca 2–0 Almeria (21 Feb 2021)