Madrid CFF W vs Deportivo Alavés W Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward a double chance on Madrid CFF W or a draw, with home and draw each at 45% and Deportivo Alavés W at just 10%, a split that already hints the away win is treated as a distant possibility. That caution is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Madrid CFF W leads on form (60 versus 40), attack (73 versus 27), goals (62 versus 38) and total (59 versus 41), while defence sits level at 50 and the head-to-head splits evenly at 50-50. The Poisson figures are the most extreme input, reading 100 for Madrid CFF W against 0 for Alavés, which supports the strong home lean but should be treated as a model artefact rather than a literal certainty. Madrid CFF W's four-match record of WWWL shows three straight wins before a 5-1 away loss to Espanyol W, and their goals analysis is consistent: 2.00 scored per game, only 0.50 conceded at home, and no match without a goal. Alavés' WLWL is far more volatile, with two home wins and two clean sheets offset by a 0-6 home defeat to Barcelona W and a 1-0 away loss at Atlético Madrid W, leaving them without a single away win or away goal in this sample. Their goal profile explains that fragility, averaging 0.80 scored overall and 0.00 away, while conceding 2.00 at home, so the 10% away probability looks justified by the underlying numbers. The last-five records add a caveat for the home side, since Madrid CFF W also lost 0-4 at home to Barcelona W in late May, showing they can be overwhelmed by elite opposition even at the Estadio Fernando Torres. The head-to-head is genuinely balanced across four meetings, with two wins each, but the most recent fixture in March 2023 was a 5-1 Madrid CFF W home win, and the two Alavés victories came in 2021 and 2022, so the historical edge is old and venue-dependent. Overall, the form, attack, goals and Poisson evidence jointly support the double chance, while the level defence, split head-to-head and Madrid CFF W's heavy recent defeats argue for keeping the draw firmly inside the advice rather than backing a straight home win.

Predicted winner

Madrid CFF W

Betting advice

Double chance : Madrid CFF W or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Madrid CFF W 5–1 Deportivo Alavés W (04 Mar 2023)
2. Deportivo Alavés W 1–2 Madrid CFF W (17 Sep 2022)
3. Deportivo Alavés W 2–1 Madrid CFF W (12 Jan 2022)
4. Madrid CFF W 0–1 Deportivo Alavés W (17 Oct 2021)