Macaé vs Artsul Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Artsul a 50% draw-or-win double chance with the remaining 50% split between a draw and an away win, and no home win probability at all, so the advice is effectively a call that Macaé will not win. That aligns with the comparison metrics, where Artsul leads on form (70 versus 30), attack (63 versus 38), defence (60 versus 40), head-to-head (88 versus 13), goals (75 versus 25) and total (71.2 versus 29.2), while the Poisson column reads 0.00 for both sides and therefore offers no separating signal. The team analysis supports the same direction but with important caveats: Artsul are unbeaten in three (WWD, two wins and a draw) with two clean sheets, whereas Macaé are LWL with both defeats coming away and their only win a 2-0 home clean sheet. Macaé's goals profile is starkly home-dependent, averaging 2.00 goals for and 0.00 against at home but 0.50 for and 1.50 against on the road, so their overall 1.00 goals-for and 1.00 goals-against averages understate how much their output depends on venue. Artsul's numbers are more balanced, averaging 1.50 goals for at home and 2.00 away while conceding 1.00 at home and 0.00 away, which helps explain why the model leans toward them despite only a three-match sample. The last-five records reinforce the gap in current form: Macaé have one win, one draw and three defeats with just four goals scored, while Artsul have two wins, two draws and one loss, including a 3-2 home win over Campo Grande and a 2-0 away win at Audax Rio. The head-to-head record is the strongest single strand for Artsul, with a 4-1 away win in 2023 and a 2-1 away win in 2021, although the 0-0 draw in 2022 shows Macaé can at least hold them, and all three meetings are old enough that they should be treated as context rather than current form. One qualification is that Artsul have missed both penalties they have taken this season, a 100% miss rate that could matter in a tight match, and their most recent outing was a 0-0 home draw with Carapebus. Overall, the evidence consistently points away from a Macaé win and toward the draw-or-Artsul double chance, but the small three-match samples, the zeroed Poisson values and Macaé's strong home defensive record mean this should be read as a lean rather than a certainty.

Predicted winner

Artsul

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Artsul

Home win probability

0%

Draw probability

50%

Away win probability

50%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Macaé 1–4 Artsul (02 Aug 2023)
2. Macaé 0–0 Artsul (22 Jun 2022)
3. Artsul 2–1 Macaé (31 Jul 2021)