Luzino vs Noteć Czarnków Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model leans toward Luzino with a double-chance call of Luzino or draw, assigning 45% to a home win and 45% to a draw against only 10% for a Noteć Czarnków victory. That split is reinforced by the comparison metrics, where Luzino leads on form (63 vs 37), attack (65 vs 35), defence (55 vs 45), Poisson (72 vs 28) and goals (53 vs 47), though the head-to-head metric is dead level at 50–50, which tempers any assumption of clear superiority. Luzino's team analysis shows a strong 7-1-1 record across nine matches with a nine-game form string of WDWWLWWWW, while Noteć Czarnków sit at 4-1-4 with a more erratic LLWWWLWLD sequence, so the gap in consistency is meaningful even if the sample is small. The goals analysis sharpens that contrast: Luzino average 3.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game, whereas Noteć Czarnków average 1.70 scored and 1.40 conceded, and Luzino have failed to score in none of their matches while Noteć have blanked twice. Both sides show late-game scoring concentration, with Luzino netting 32.14% of goals in the 61–75 window and Noteć scoring 60% in the 76–90 window, suggesting the closing stages could matter more than the opening exchanges. The last-five records support Luzino's edge, as they have won four of five including a 5-1 home win and a 4-0 away win, while Noteć have two wins, one draw and two losses in the same span. The head-to-head record is the main counterweight, since the four meetings are split 2-2 and include Noteć's 5-2 home win in 2023 and a 2-0 away win in 2025, showing they are capable of beating Luzino despite the form gap. Noteć's defensive numbers are not disastrous, with 1.40 goals conceded per game and three clean sheets, and their 0-0 draw with Polonia Środa in the most recent outing hints at a tighter recent shape than their overall form implies. On balance, the evidence supports the existing double-chance advice rather than a straight home win, because the 45% draw probability and the even head-to-head record both caution against treating Luzino's statistical superiority as decisive.

Predicted winner

Luzino

Betting advice

Double chance : Luzino or draw

Home win probability

45%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

10%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Luzino 3–0 Noteć Czarnków (21 Mar 2026)
2. Noteć Czarnków 0–2 Luzino (31 Aug 2025)
3. Luzino 1–2 Noteć Czarnków (29 Mar 2024)
4. Noteć Czarnków 5–2 Luzino (02 Sep 2023)