Ludogorets vs Cherno More Varna Prediction
Match prediction
- Ludogorets' unbeaten eight-match run and superior attack rating justify the double-chance advice, though the level probabilities show the model sees little separation.
- Cherno More's exceptional defensive record of six goals conceded in thirteen games is the strongest counterweight to Ludogorets' attacking edge.
- The head-to-head record leans Ludogorets' way, but recent meetings include three draws and an away win for Cherno More, tempering home dominance.
- Ludogorets' perfect scoring record contrasts with Cherno More's three blanks, supporting the view that the home side avoids defeat more reliably than it wins.
- Cherno More's away form is notably resilient, with four wins and no losses on the road, which explains why the draw carries equal probability to a home win.
- The Poisson comparison heavily favours Cherno More, a conflicting signal that likely explains why the model avoids backing Ludogorets for an outright victory.
- Predicted winner
- Ludogorets
- Betting advice
- Double chance : Ludogorets or draw
- Home win probability
- 35%
- Draw probability
- 35%
- Away win probability
- 30%
- Goals market
- —
Prediction comparison
| Factor | Ludogorets | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| Attack | 70.0% | 30.0% |
| Defence | 33.0% | 67.0% |
| Poisson | 15.0% | 85.0% |
| H2h | 62.0% | 38.0% |
| Goals | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Total | 48.3% | 51.7% |
Team form and goal analysis
Ludogorets
Recent form: WDWWDWWW.
Average goals scored: 2.80 per match.
Cherno More Varna
Recent form: WLWLWWWDWWDDW.
Average goals scored: 1.50 per match.
Head-to-head record
- Cherno More Varna 2–3 Ludogorets (09 Aug 2026)
- Ludogorets 0–0 Cherno More Varna (09 Apr 2026)
- Cherno More Varna 0–0 Ludogorets (02 Nov 2025)
- Cherno More Varna 2–0 Ludogorets (13 May 2025)
- Ludogorets 2–0 Cherno More Varna (27 Apr 2025)