Ludogorets II vs Etar Veliko Tarnovo Prediction

Match prediction

The existing model gives Etar Veliko Tarnovo a 45% win probability and Ludogorets II only 10%, with the draw also at 45%, which is why the advice is a double chance on draw or Etar rather than a straight away win. That caution is supported by the comparison metrics, where Etar leads on attack (58 vs 42), defence (22 vs 78), Poisson (56 vs 44), head-to-head (85 vs 15), goals (75 vs 25) and overall total (56.70 vs 43.30), yet Ludogorets II surprisingly holds the better form score (56 vs 44). The form conflict is partly explained by the last-five records: Ludogorets II have two draws and a 3-0 win at Pirin Blagoevgrad but also two defeats, while Etar have lost three of five, including heavy 4-1 defeats away to Hebar and Vihren, though they did beat CSKA Sofia II 1-0 at home. Etar's broader performance analysis shows four wins, two draws and four defeats from ten, with a three-match winning streak and no failure to score in any match, but their away record is the weak point, with three defeats and 2.80 goals conceded per away game. Ludogorets II's ten-match record is three wins, three draws and four defeats, and their defensive numbers are poor at 1.30 goals conceded at home and 0.80 away, with four matches without scoring, which helps explain why the model still leans away despite the form edge. The goals analysis reinforces the low-scoring expectation: Ludogorets II average 0.90 goals per game and have gone under 2.5 in nine of ten, while Etar average 1.70 and have also gone under 2.5 in nine of ten, so the 45% draw probability looks consistent with a tight match. The head-to-head record is the strongest single signal for Etar, with six wins, two draws and two defeats in ten meetings, including a 1-0 win at Ludogorets II in November 2025 and a 2-0 win there in November 2024, although Ludogorets II did win the most recent meeting 1-0 in May 2026. The venue is Ludogorets II's training centre, which may reduce home advantage, and the fixture is not yet started, so all of this remains a pre-match assessment rather than a confirmed outcome. Overall, the evidence supports the double chance on draw or Etar as a way of covering the draw probability while acknowledging that Etar's poor away form and Ludogorets II's better recent form make a home win less likely but not impossible.

Predicted winner

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Betting advice

Double chance : draw or Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Home win probability

10%

Draw probability

45%

Away win probability

45%

Goals market

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Prediction comparison

Team form and goal analysis

Head-to-head record

1. Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1–0 Ludogorets II (15 May 2026)
2. Ludogorets II 0–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo (28 Nov 2025)
3. Etar Veliko Tarnovo 1–1 Ludogorets II (18 May 2025)
4. Ludogorets II 0–2 Etar Veliko Tarnovo (25 Nov 2024)
5. Ludogorets II 1–1 Etar Veliko Tarnovo (22 Apr 2023)